Model description 

1. Purpose of the model: The CoCuNi (pronounced kokanee) model links global demand and supply of three intertwined materials: cobalt (Co), copper (Cu) and nickel (Ni), in a simulation market model with explicit consideration of electric vehicle (EV) and battery scenarios. By incorporating feedback between supply, demand, prices and capacity expansion, we quantify realistic production scenarios for both primary (mining) and secondary (recycling)​ sources. Furthermore, to understand the magnitude of material (battery) demand from the in-use EV stock, we also consider demand to replace end-of-life batteries. We seek to answer the following questions:

  1. How will production from both primary and secondary sources react to various EV deployment scenarios and battery-chemistry combinations?
  2. How much supply might promising/potential new (mining) projects contribute?
  3. What is the impact of reducing battery lifetime?
  4. If recycling rates are increased for all three materials, what are the implications for Co production? 

2. Methodology: Detailed description of the model can be found in our published article.

This model was built using the system dynamics modeling method. 

3. Prerequisites: Users are required to download Powersim ​to run the model.

4. License type: This model has been licensed under Apache License 2.0. To learn more about the terms and conditions for use, reproduction, and distribution, please read the LICENSE.txt file available in the Model files section. 

5. Funding source: This work is supported by the Critical Materials Institute, an Energy Innovation Hub funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Advanced Manufacturing Office under Grant AL-12-350-001.  

Notice: This computer software was prepared by Battelle Energy Alliance, LLC, hereinafter the Contractor, under Contract No. AC07-05ID14517 with the United States (U. S.) Department of Energy (DOE).  The Government is granted for itself and others acting on its behalf a nonexclusive, paid-up, irrevocable worldwide license in this data to reproduce, prepare derivative works, and perform publicly and display publicly, by or on behalf of the Government. There is a provision for the possible extension of the term of this license.  Subsequent to that period or any extension granted, the Government is granted for itself and others acting on its behalf a nonexclusive, paid-up, irrevocable worldwide license in this data to reproduce, prepare derivative works, distribute copies to the public, perform publicly and display publicly, and to permit others to do so.  The specific term of the license can be identified by inquiry made to Contractor or DOE.  Neither the United States nor the United States Department of Energy, nor contractor makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any liability or responsibility for the use, accuracy, completeness, or usefulness or any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. 

Author contact information:

Ruby Nguyen 

Email: ruby.nguyen@inl.gov 

Idaho National Laboratory

1955 Fremont Ave, Idaho Falls, ID 83415  

Michael Severson 

Email: michael.severson@inl.gov 

Idaho National Laboratory

1955 Fremont Ave, Idaho Falls, ID 83415  

 

Model files:

https://inlbox.box.com/s/rkn06dikzartc0irmljxkwu1ch3hgs71  

Link to GitHub 

https://github.com/IdahoLabResearch/CoCuNi  

 

Key Words

Cobalt, copper, nickel, electric vehicles, primary production, secondary production, supply chain, system dynamics, battery chemistry​

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